Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 1/27/2024

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Philadelphia 76ers · Jan 27, 2024

Updated Jan 28, 2024 3:38 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has notched 32.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.3 more than he's notched over the course of the season.
Nikola Jokic has successfully made 73.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 12.0% more than he's put through the net in all games this season.
Nikola Jokic has been on the court for 33.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 89th percentile.
This year, their opposition has averaged 33.9% on three-pointers (weakest in the league) vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, identifying this as a difficult matchup.
The matchup against Joel Embiid is a good one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year, they have tallied a massive 0.9 3-pointers per game (100th percentile).

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The 76ers have played at the 10th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Nuggets.
Over the last 15 games, opposing clubs have captured 13.3 offensive rebounds per game (most in the NBA) vs. the 76ers (continuing possessions that can spark bonus opportunities for offense).
As it relates to getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's poor 20.6 free throw attempts per game ranks 3rd-worst in the league this year.
The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs vs. Joel Embiid has been quite low this year (1.9 free throws per game when they are on their home court: 7th percentile).

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