Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 1/19/2024

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 19, 2024

Updated Jan 20, 2024 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has sunk 79.3% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games, 18.4% more than he's made overall this season.
Nikola Jokic has successfully made 64.3% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games, 22.4% more than he's made from downtown overall this year.
Nikola Jokic has averaged 33.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 88th percentile.
The number of treys made against Kristaps Porzingis has been remarkably high (0.8 per game) when defending opposing starting Cs this year (96th percentile).
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has been called for 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 0.9 higher than he's been called for overall this season on the road.
With respect to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive offense in the league while playing on the road this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Denver Nuggets.
The matchup vs. Kristaps Porzingis is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; when defending opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 2.8 free throws per game (21st percentile).
Nikola Jokic will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally decreases player performance in all stat categories.

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