Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/18/2023

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 18, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 1:38 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has attempted 19.4 shots from the field per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 16.1 rate last season.
Nikola Jokic has converted 50.0% of his treys over the last 5 games, 12.8% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this year.
Nikola Jokic has tallied 33.1 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 88th percentile.
The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a good one; they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting Cs over the last 5 games (20.6).
The Denver Nuggets will likely see a spike in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 4th-fastest pace-of-play road team in the league this year (the Dallas Mavericks).

Favors Under

As it relates to 3-point attempts, the 6th-least aggressive team in the league this year has been the Nuggets.
The 3rd-slowest tempo home team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
Over the last 25 games, opposing clubs have come down with 11.9 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks (maintaining possessions that can spark bonus chances for offense).

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