Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:28 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has sunk a terrific 11.1 baskets per game this season, significantly more than his 9.8 rate last season.
Nikola Jokic has played 37.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.5 higher than he's played over the course of the season.
The Nuggets are expected to see a rise in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 10 games (the Hawks).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 8thbest in in the NBA with 12.0 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
The matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks is a positive one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting Cs have attempted a massive 4.3 free throws per game this year (27th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has made a mere 27.6% of his treys this season, significantly lower than his 37.4 rate last season.
The Nuggets check in as the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the league when playing on the road this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting Cs have averaged 1.0 three attempts per game (14th-lowest in the NBA) against the Atlanta Hawks, designating this as a hard matchup.
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA while at home this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have nabbed 13.6 offensive boards per game (2nd-most in the NBA) vs. the Hawks (preserving possessions that can spark bonus opportunities for offense).

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