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Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic Points
Player Prop - 2/13/2023

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Nikola Jokic has successfully made 10.7 shots made from the field per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.3 more than he's made overall this year while playing on the road.

Nikola Jokic has successfully made 60.8% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 25.2% more than he's made from 3-point range overall this season away from his home court.

Nikola Jokic has played 33.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 89th percentile.

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games.

The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a strong one for attempts from downtown; when Adebayo is at home and squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted an enormous 2.2 three-pointers per game (100th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games in their home stadium, which should lead to fewer plays for the Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a tough one for getting to the free throw line; when facing opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted just 2.6 foul shots per game (10th percentile).

Nikola Jokic will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally reduces stat production in all stat categories.

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