Nikola Jokic Assists - Player Prop Bet 3/2/2024

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Assists

Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 2, 2024

Updated Mar 3, 2024 1:42 AM EST

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-117/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has compiled 12.6 assists per game over the last 5 games, 3.3 more than he's compiled over the course of the year.
Nikola Jokic has played 33.6 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking in the 91st percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The Denver Nuggets will likely see a spike in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 25 games (the Los Angeles Lakers).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 11thbest in in the NBA while on the road with 12.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The 2nd-least up-tempo pace away team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Nuggets.
The Lakers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (11.9) in the league to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Nikola Jokic is expected to suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories due to playing away from home in this game.

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