Michael Porter Jr. Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/2/2024

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Rebounds

Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 2, 2024

Updated Mar 2, 2024 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 7.0 defensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season.
Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 31.7 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 85th percentile.
The Denver Nuggets will likely see a spike in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 25 games (the Los Angeles Lakers).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 11thbest in in the NBA while on the road with 12.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

The 2nd-least up-tempo pace away team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Nuggets.
The Lakers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (11.9) in the league to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. ought to suffer a drop-off in productivity across the board due to playing away from home in this game.