Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/21/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Philadelphia 76ers · Jan 21, 2025

Updated Jan 21, 2025 9:54 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. measures in the 92nd percentile for threes converted, tallying 2.6 per game this year.
Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 33.1 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 88th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.
This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 40.8% on 3-pointers (4th-highest in the NBA) against the Philadelphia 76ers, resulting in a favorable matchup.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games playing at home.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets will likely suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the most sluggish pace offense in the NBA this year (the Philadelphia 76ers).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Nuggets rank 4thworst in in the league with the home court advantage with a mere 9.0 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
Michael Porter Jr. has converted just 69.8% of his foul shot attempts this year, quite a bit lower than his 82.8 mark last year.