Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/12/2025

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 12, 2025

Updated Jan 13, 2025 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 7.2 field goals per game this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among all players in the league.
Michael Porter Jr. has made 3.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 higher than he's converted from three in all games this year.
Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 34.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 93rd percentile.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 16.0 shot attempts per game (most in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, identifying this as a strong matchup.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of shot attempts from downtown.
The matchup against Dallas is a tough one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.5 foul shots per game this year when the Mavericks are at home (3rd-least in the NBA).
Michael Porter Jr. figures to see a decline in production in all facets of the game due to playing on the visting team in this game.

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