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Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Michael Porter Jr. has converted 60.0% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 18.2% higher than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year.Out of all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. ranks in the 93rd percentile for playing time, posting a massive 35.3 minutes per game when playing at home this year.This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have shot 47.0% on 3-pointers (best in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, resulting in a good matchup.The 6th-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Nuggets.The Nuggets have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (77th percentile).As it relates to 3-point attempts, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Nuggets.The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a decline in possessions today from being pitted against the 8th-most lethargic pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Golden State Warriors).Compared to last season's 82.8% rate, Michael Porter Jr.'s foul-shot efficiency has tailed off this season to 62.5%.This year, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.
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