Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 5/12/2024

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets · May 12, 2024

Updated May 12, 2024 11:47 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 20.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.5 more than he's tallied in all games this season.
Michael Porter Jr. has made 3.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's converted from 3-point range overall this year.
Michael Porter Jr. has been on the court for 39.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.7 higher than he's been on the court for overall this season.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 7th-best in the league on the road with 11.3 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the least aggressive offense in the NBA while on the road this year has been the Nuggets.
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 40.6% on field goals (3rd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, marking this as a tough matchup.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer plays for the Denver Nuggets.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.4 free throws per game (10th-fewest in the NBA) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, making it tough to draw fouls.
Michael Porter Jr. will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city generally decreases stat production across the board.

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