Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 4/2/2024

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs · Apr 2, 2024

Updated Apr 3, 2024 12:57 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has converted 56.6% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 15 games, 8.0% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.
Michael Porter Jr. has been on the court for 31.5 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The Spurs have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court, which should raise opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 15.1% more than he's put through the net in all games this year with the home court advantage.

Favors Under

When it comes to shot attempts from downtown, the least aggressive offense in the league this year has been the Nuggets.
Over the last 15 games, opposing starting PFs have notched 15.8 points per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the San Antonio Spurs, resulting in a difficult matchup for offensive productivity.
The 4th-least up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Nuggets.

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