Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2024

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 13, 2024

Updated Mar 14, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 3.4 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.9 higher than he's made overall this year when playing on the road.
Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. rates in the 84th percentile for playing time, averaging a monstrous 31.8 minutes per game this year.
In terms of shooting, the Nuggets's fantastic 53.2% field goal percentage settles in as the most in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The matchup against the Miami Heat is a favorable one for shot attempts from the field; opposing starting SFs have tallied the 7th-most field goal attempts per game in the NBA this year (12.2).
Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 22.3% higher than he's sunk in all games this year while playing away from home.

Favors Under

The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games as the road team.
The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should decrease plays for the Denver Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. will likely see a decline in performance for all stats as a result of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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