Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 2/2/2024

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers · Feb 2, 2024

Updated Feb 3, 2024 2:08 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 6.8 shots from downtown per game this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among all players in the league.
Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 31.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 83rd percentile.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 10th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court, which should boost plays for the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 25.6% higher than he's converted in all games this season.

Favors Under

The matchup against Portland is a tough one; when the Trail Blazers are away from home, they have allowed the 14th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting SFs this year (12.1).
The 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Nuggets.
Over the last 25 games when they are playing at home, opposing teams have grabbed 11.4 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers (lengthening possessions that can spark further opportunities for offense).
As it relates to getting to the foul line, the Nuggets's feeble 21.0 free throw attempts per game measures as the 4th-worst in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. Portland is a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a mere 1.9 free throws per game this year when the Trail Blazers are the visiting squad (12th-least in the NBA).