Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 12/2/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 2, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 3:14 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has played 30.9 minutes per game away from his home court this year, ranking in the 78th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings is a good one for shots from the field; the opposition's starting PFs have averaged the 30th-most field goals per game in the league this year (8.1).
The Nuggets are expected to see an increase in possessions in this game from facing the 7th-speediest tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Sacramento Kings).
The Denver Nuggets have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are on their home court, the other team has captured 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Kings (shortening possessions that could otherwise spark added opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted just 7.2 treys per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 7.8 rate last year.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year.
The 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play home offense in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings is a challenging one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 3.5 free throws per game this year (6th-least in the NBA).
Michael Porter Jr. stands to experience a decrease in effectiveness in all stat categories on account of playing away from hom in this matchup.