Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 6/9/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets · Jun 9, 2023

Updated Jun 10, 2023 12:36 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has sunk an impressive 46.8% of his shots from the field this season, a significant increase from his 36.5 rate last season.
Michael Porter Jr. has made a terrific 38.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc this year, a significant increase from his 18.2 rate last year.
Michael Porter Jr. has been on the court for 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 5.5 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year on the road.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from home.
The matchup against the Heat is a strong one; they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SFs this year (17.6).

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually reduces stat production in all facets of the game.

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