Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 14, 2023

Updated Mar 15, 2023 2:47 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 29.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 81st percentile.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Playing at home, the Raptors have given up the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (7.6) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 18.2% of his 3-point attempts this year, ranking in the 14th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The matchup against the Raptors is a hard one for scoring; the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 15th-least field goals per game in the NBA this year (5.0).
The Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 60.0% of his foul shot attempts this year, placing him in the 14th percentile out of all players in the league.

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