Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/6/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 6, 2023

Updated Mar 6, 2023 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 5.5 threes per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 85th percentile out of all players in the league.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games on their home court.
While on the road, the Raptors have given up the 6th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.4) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. has converted 100.0% of his free throws on his home court this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among all players in the NBA.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Toronto is a challenging one; when the Raptors are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SFs this year (13.5).
The Raptors have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Raptors may be a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 1.6 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (14th-least in the league).

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