Michael Porter Jr. Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 3/30/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Made 3 Point Shots

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Mar 30, 2023

Updated Mar 30, 2023 9:16 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has converted 4.0 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season.
The matchup against New Orleans is a positive one for attempts from downtown; when the Pelicans are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SFs have averaged the 22nd-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.2).
The Denver Nuggets have been the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Pelicans have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (6.6) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. will hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city generally boosts player production across the board.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets rank as the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of attempts from downtown.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Pelicans have played at the 9th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road, which ought to decrease plays for the Nuggets.