Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 2/2/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers · Feb 2, 2024

Updated Feb 3, 2024 1:57 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has made 52.0% of his treys over the last 5 games on the road, 12.2% more than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the season on the road.
Malcolm Brogdon has been on the court for 36.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.8 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 10th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing away from home.
Offensive rebounds save possession and lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers grade out 6thbest in in the league with 11.9 offensive boards per game this year.
Malcolm Brogdon has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 19.6% higher than he's sunk overall this season.

Favors Under

The Trail Blazers have been the lowest scoring offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 20.5% on three-pointers (14th-weakest in the league) against the Nuggets, creating a tough matchup.
The Portland Trail Blazers will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from competing against the 2nd-most sluggish pace team in the league over the last 25 games (the Denver Nuggets).
The Nuggets have allowed the 10th-most offensive boards per game (10.6) in the league to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon stands to suffer a drop-off in effectiveness in all facets of the game on account of playing away from home in this contest.