Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 1/17/2024

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Brooklyn Nets · Jan 17, 2024

Updated Jan 17, 2024 9:52 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has converted 3.8 treys per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.1 more than he's converted from downtown in all games this season when playing at home.
This year when they are at home, opposing starting PGs have tallied 3.5 threes per game (30th-highest in the NBA) against the Nets, designating this as a positive matchup.
The 10th-quickest pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Portland Trail Blazers.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in more chances for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers grade out 15thbest in in the NBA as the home team with 14.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Malcolm Brogdon has converted 86.7% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games at home, 10.4% more than he's made over the course of the year with the home court advantage.

Favors Under

The Trail Blazers have been the lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Brooklyn Nets have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Trail Blazers.
Without the home court advantage, the Brooklyn Nets have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (12.1) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).