Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 1:39 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has made 7.4 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.
Malcolm Brogdon has made 3.4 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's made from downtown overall this year.
The Portland Trail Blazers will likely see an increase in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 5th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Mavericks).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers grade out 2ndbest in in the league with 13.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
The matchup vs. the Mavericks may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing clubs have attempted a measly 21.6 free throws per game over the last 15 games (6th-least in the NBA).

Favors Under

The Trail Blazers rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league when playing on the road this year.
The 5th-least up-tempo pace away offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Portland Trail Blazers.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing squads have collected 12.3 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Mavericks (preserving possessions that can lead to added chances for offense).
Malcolm Brogdon figures to suffer a drop-off in productivity in all stat categories as a result of being on the road in this matchup.

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