Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 28, 2023 10:13 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 13.1 shots from the field per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 10.8 mark last year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 48.4% on 3-pointers (30th-best in the NBA) against the Spurs, branding this as a good matchup.
The Spurs have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Trail Blazers grade out 15thbest in in the league on their home court with 14.6 offensive boards per game this year.
Without the home court advantage, the Spurs have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

In terms of scoring, the Portland Trail Blazers's feeble 108.7 points per game measures as the 2nd-fewest in the NBA this year.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 8th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA playing at home this year.