Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers · Dec 23, 2023

Updated Dec 23, 2023 8:24 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has been on the court for 30.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 4.5 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year on the road.
This year, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 38.4% on 3-pointers (25th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Golden State Warriors, marking this as a positive matchup.
The Trail Blazers have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 7.2 foul shots per game (29th-highest in the NBA) against the Golden State Warriors, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

Malcolm Brogdon has missed 3.3 three-point shots per game this year, a significant increase from his 2.6 mark last year.
The Portland Trail Blazers rank as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The 6th-most sluggish tempo road offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Trail Blazers.
The Warriors have played at the 8th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Trail Blazers.
While on their home court, the Warriors have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (13.4) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).