Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 12/17/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors · Dec 17, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:13 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 13.8 field goals per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 10.8 mark last year.
Out of all players in the league, Malcolm Brogdon rates in the 80th percentile for shot attempts from downtown, posting 5.2 per game this year.
The Warriors have played at the 5th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games on the road, which ought to increase opportunities for the Trail Blazers.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Trail Blazers grade out 15thbest in in the NBA at home with 14.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Over the last 10 games when they are on their home court, their opposition has collected 9.3 offensive rebounds per game (6th-lowest in the league) against the Golden State Warriors (losing possessions that could otherwise generate added opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

The Trail Blazers rank as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The matchup against the Warriors is a good one; they have given up the 7th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 25 games (115.7).
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the league this year.
Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has attempted 31.2 free throws per game (most in the NBA) against the Golden State Warriors, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.