Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 11/26/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Portland Trail Blazers · Nov 26, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 15.1 field goals per game this season, significantly higher than his 10.8 rate last season.
Malcolm Brogdon has sunk a terrific 2.3 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, quite a bit more than his 1.9 rate last year.
The matchup vs. Milwaukee is a favorable one; when the Milwaukee Bucks are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (23.9).
The Portland Trail Blazers will likely see a rise in plays today from competing against the 2nd-fastest tempo home team in the league this year (the Bucks).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers rank 8thbest in in the NBA on the road with 12.4 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Favors Under

In regard to offense, the Trail Blazers's poor 104.4 points per game as the away team ranks worst in the league this year.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks have allowed the 9th-most offensive boards per game (11.6) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court usually decreases player production for all stats.

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