Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 5/29/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 29, 2023

Updated May 29, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has converted an impressive 41.1% of his 3-pointers this year, a big improvement over his 29.6 mark last year.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
On the road, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Heat is a hard one for drawing fouls; the other team have attempted a measly 21.6 foul shots per game this year (4th-least in the league).
Malcolm Brogdon will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court generally raises stat production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Malcolm Brogdon has averaged a lowly 14.4 points per game this season, significantly lower than his 19.1 points per game last season.
This matchup is a good one for 3-pointers; opposing clubs have totaled the 4th-most shots from downtown per game in the league this year (13.0).
The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Celtics.
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been bad at drawing fouls in recent games: worst in the NBA over the last 25 games, drawing a measly 19.9 free throw attempts per game.