Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 5/25/2023

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 25, 2023

Updated May 24, 2023 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has converted a whopping 41.6% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, significantly higher than his 29.6 mark last year.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
Without the home court advantage, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon has converted 2.3 free throws per game this year, putting him in the 79th percentile out of all players in the league.
Malcolm Brogdon will enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage generally increases player production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Miami is a hard one; when the Heat are on the road, they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs this year (16.0).
The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, which should reduce opportunities for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Miami may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a measly 3.1 free throws per game over the last 15 games when the Heat are the visiting squad (10th-least in the league).