Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 5/23/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · May 23, 2023

Updated May 24, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has sunk a terrific 42.1% of his treys this year, quite a bit higher than his 29.6 rate last year.
The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one; they have given up the 12th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (16.6).
The Boston Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should reduce plays for the Celtics.
Malcolm Brogdon has successfully made a measly 2.3 foul shots per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 4.0 rate last season.
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been bad at drawing fouls while on the road: worst in the NBA this year with a mere 20.0 free throw attempts per game.

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