Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 5/21/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · May 21, 2023

Updated May 22, 2023 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has scored 14.9 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 81st percentile.
Malcolm Brogdon has sunk an impressive 42.7% of his three-point attempts this year, significantly higher than his 29.6 mark last year.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while playing away from home.
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Heat is a difficult one for scoring; the opposition's starting PGs have averaged the 12th-least field goals per game in the league this year (5.8).
The Boston Celtics have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon has attempted a lowly 2.7 foul shots per game this year, significantly less than his 4.6 rate last year.

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