Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 5/19/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 19, 2023

Updated May 19, 2023 10:01 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has converted an impressive 42.9% of his 3-pointers this year, significantly more than his 29.6 rate last year.
Malcolm Brogdon has been on the court for 30.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.9 more than he's been on the court for overall this year.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon will hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage usually raises player production for all stats.

Favors Under

Malcolm Brogdon has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the year.
The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one; when the Heat are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (16.2).
The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

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