Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 4/27/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics · Apr 27, 2023

Updated Apr 27, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has sunk an impressive 42.4% of his 3-pointers this season, a big improvement over his 29.6 rate last season.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Boston Celtics have played at the 10th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Hawks have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games at home, which should raise possessions for the Celtics.
The Hawks have given up the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The matchup against Atlanta is a difficult one for threes; when the Hawks are on their home court, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied the 11th-least three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (1.7).
The Boston Celtics rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Hawks may be a hard one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 1.5 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (13th-least in the NBA).
Malcolm Brogdon will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decreases player production in all stat categories.