Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 4/21/2023

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics · Apr 21, 2023

Updated Apr 21, 2023 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 13.2 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
Malcolm Brogdon has sunk a terrific 42.5% of his attempts from beyond the arc this season, significantly more than his 29.6 mark last season.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The matchup against Atlanta is a good one; when the Hawks are on their home court, they have allowed the 25th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 15 games (21.5).
The Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home stadium, which should raise opportunities for the Celtics.

Favors Under

The Boston Celtics have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing on the road.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually decreases player performance in all stat categories.