Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors · Apr 5, 2023

Updated Apr 5, 2023 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has made a whopping 43.0% of his 3-point shots this year, a significant increase from his 29.6 rate last year.
Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 5.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 1.3 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year at home.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league while playing at home this year.
The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games while at home.
Away from home, the Raptors have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.4) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

This matchup is a positive one for threes; opposing squads have put up the highest three rate in the league over the last 10 games while on the road (42.9%).
The Raptors have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 10 games while traveling, which ought to reduce possessions for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

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