Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 4, 2023 11:41 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has sunk an impressive 42.9% of his shots from downtown this season, a sizeable increase from his 29.6 rate last season.
The Boston Celtics check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. the 76ers is a challenging one; they have allowed the 3rd-least points per game in the league to their opposition this year (110.6).
The Boston Celtics have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The 76ers have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
The 76ers have given up the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.0) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 7 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon has sunk a lowly 2.4 free throws per game this year, significantly lower than his 4.0 rate last year.
This matchup may be a positive one for drawing fouls; when the 76ers are at home, opposing clubs have attempted a monstrous 25.2 free throws per game over the last 20 games (6th-most in the NBA).

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