Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2023

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Boston Celtics · Mar 17, 2023

Updated Mar 17, 2023 10:01 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 17.4 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 more than he's attempted over the course of the year.
Malcolm Brogdon has played 33.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 90th percentile.
The Boston Celtics have been the 7th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when playing on the road.
While at home, the Trail Blazers have allowed the 9th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon has made 91.4% of his free throws over the last 10 games on the road, 8.3% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season without the home court advantage.

Favors Under

This matchup is a good one for three-pointers; opposing teams have compiled the 2nd-highest three rate in the league this year (37.0%).
The Boston Celtics have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games while on the road.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a strong one for drawing fouls; their opposition have attempted a massive 30.5 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (most in the NBA).
Malcolm Brogdon will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually lowers player production in all stat categories.