Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/15/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Boston Celtics · Mar 15, 2023

Updated Mar 16, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 17.4 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
Malcolm Brogdon has averaged 33.0 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 90th percentile.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 7th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road.
This matchup is a difficult one for field goals; when the Timberwolves are on their home court, opposing teams have put up the 2nd-lowest field goal rate in the league against them this year (43.9%).
The Timberwolves have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should lead to more possessions for the Celtics.

Favors Under

The Boston Celtics have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games on the road.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Timberwolves have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.4) in the league to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a favorable one for getting to the free throw line; their opposition have attempted a massive 25.9 free throws per game this year (most in the league).
Malcolm Brogdon will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually worsens player performance across the board.