Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics · Mar 11, 2023

Updated Mar 11, 2023 11:00 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 17.4 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
Malcolm Brogdon has played 33.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 90th percentile.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 7th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games without the home court advantage.
Malcolm Brogdon has made 91.4% of his foul shots over the last 10 games on the road, 8.3% more than he's made over the course of the season away from home.
The matchup vs. the Hawks may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; opposing squads have attempted a lowly 19.3 free throws per game over the last 15 games when the Hawks have the home court advantage (least in the league).

Favors Under

The Boston Celtics have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games away from their home court.
The Hawks have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
When playing at home, the Hawks have allowed the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.6) in the league to opposing teams over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens player performance in all facets of the game.