Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/8/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Portland Trail Blazers · Mar 8, 2023

Updated Mar 8, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has attempted 17.4 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this season.
Malcolm Brogdon has averaged 33.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 90th percentile.
The Boston Celtics have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Trail Blazers have given up the 10th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.8) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon has successfully made 91.4% of his free throws over the last 10 games, 8.3% more than he's converted over the course of the season.

Favors Under

The Boston Celtics have been the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games at home.
This matchup is a favorable one for threes; their opposition have posted the 2nd-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (37.0%).
The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games with the home court advantage.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 10th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while traveling, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Celtics.
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; their opposition have attempted a massive 30.5 free throws per game over the last 25 games (most in the league).