Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 1/21/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics · Jan 21, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 10:41 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has sunk 7.2 baskets per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.2 higher than he's made over the course of the year when playing away from home.
Malcolm Brogdon has made 3.6 treys per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.5 more than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season away from home.
The Boston Celtics have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Raptors have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (which can also lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Raptors is a positive one for drawing fouls; the other team have attempted a massive 22.2 foul shots per game while playing at home this year (7th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The matchup against the Raptors is a difficult one for three-pointers; the other team have averaged the 7th-least shots from downtown per game in the league this year while at home (12.7).
The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (which also reduces additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Celtics have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Raptors.
Malcolm Brogdon will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally reduces player performance in all stat categories.