Malcolm Brogdon Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 5/17/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Made 3 Point Shots

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 17, 2023

Updated May 17, 2023 10:01 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has made an impressive 42.9% of his three-point shots this year, quite a bit more than his 29.6 mark last year.
The Boston Celtics check in as the most aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games at home in terms of attempts from downtown.
The matchup against the Heat is a strong one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged the 21st-most 3-point shots per game in the league this year (2.1).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city usually improves player production for all stats.

Favors Under

The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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