Luka Doncic Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/25/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 25, 2023

Updated Dec 25, 2023 10:43 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has totaled 10.0 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's totaled overall this season.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic comes in at the 97th percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 35.9 minutes per game away from his home court this year.
The Mavericks have played at the 2nd-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has committed 0.4 technical fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.1 more than he's committed overall this year.
The Suns have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Mavericks.
This year, opposing clubs have collected 11.6 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) vs. the Suns (maintaining possessions that can generate extra chances for offense).
Luka Doncic ought to suffer a reduction in efficiency across the board due to being on the road in this matchup.

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