Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 11/8/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns · Nov 8, 2024

Updated Nov 8, 2024 6:05 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has played 35.5 minutes per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
In regard to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's exceptional 43.0 drained field goals per game with the home court advantage ranks 4th-strongest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The 6th-quickest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
Luka Doncic has attempted 8.1 foul shots per game this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Luka Doncic is expected to get a boost in effectiveness in all stat categories due to controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has logged just 28.6 points per game this year, significantly lower than his 32.7 points per game last year.
Compared to last season's 47.6% mark, Luka Doncic's scoring prowess has fallen this season to 40.2%.
The matchup vs. Phoenix is a tough one; when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team, they have given up the least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (12.2).
The Mavericks check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Phoenix is a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a lowly 2.1 free throws per game this year when the Suns are away from home (2nd-least in the NBA).