Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 4/21/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 21, 2024

Updated Apr 21, 2024 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-122/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has logged 33.9 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 100th percentile.
In comparison to last season's 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic's 3-point attempts have spiked this season to 10.6 per game.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic registers in the 99th percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 37.1 minutes per game away from home this year.
The Mavericks have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the NBA away from their home court this year.
The Clippers have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 42.1% on shot attempts from the field (8th-lowest in the league) vs. the LA Clippers, making this a tough matchup.
In comparison to last season's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of free throw attempts has dropped this season to 8.7 free throw attempts per game.
The matchup vs. Los Angeles is a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 2.9 free throws per game this year when the Clippers are playing at home (8th-least in the NBA).
Luka Doncic will likely see a decline in production in all facets of the game on account of being on the road in this matchup.

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