Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 4/9/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Charlotte Hornets vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 9, 2024

Updated Apr 9, 2024 11:03 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-136/+102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has successfully made 46.3% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games, 8.8% more than he's converted overall this year.
Luka Doncic has attempted 10.5 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 8.2 rate last year.
Luka Doncic has tallied 37.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 99th percentile.
The Mavericks rank as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing on the road.
The 4th-speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Mavericks.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Charlotte Hornets is a difficult one for shot attempts from the field; the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled the least shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (11.3).
The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a decline in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-slowest tempo offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Charlotte Hornets).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in added chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 1stworst in in the NBA away from their home court with a mere 7.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
Relative to last year's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of free throws has been reduced this year to 8.7 free throws per game.
This year, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.9 free throws per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Hornets, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

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