Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz · Mar 21, 2024

Updated Mar 21, 2024 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has notched 34.1 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the league by this standard: 100th percentile.
Luka Doncic has attempted 10.4 treys per game this year, a big improvement over his 8.2 mark last year.
Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic registers in the 100th percentile for playing time, putting up a monstrous 37.5 minutes per game this year.
The Mavericks have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Mavericks are expected to see a rise in plays in this contest from facing the 8th-fastest pace-of-play road team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Utah Jazz).

Favors Under

The Mavericks rank as the 4th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 5 games when playing at home.
This year, opposing starting PGs have shot 26.5% on threes (worst in the league) against the Utah Jazz, making this a difficult matchup.
In contrast to last year's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has declined this year to 8.9 foul shots per game.
This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Utah Jazz, struggling to get to the charity stripe.