Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors · Mar 13, 2024

Updated Mar 14, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has scored 34.6 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 100th percentile.
Luka Doncic has attempted 10.4 threes per game this year, a significant increase from his 8.2 rate last year.
Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic measures in the 100th percentile for playing time, registering a monstrous 37.5 minutes per game this year.
The Mavericks check in as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have notched 24.4 points per game (highest in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, identifying this as a good matchup for offensive production.

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 5thworst in in the league with just 8.9 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Luka Doncic has attempted a lowly 9.0 foul shots per game this season, quite a bit less than his 10.5 rate last season.

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