Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Philadelphia 76ers · Mar 3, 2024

Updated Mar 3, 2024 9:57 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has totaled 34.5 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league in this category: 100th percentile.
Luka Doncic has attempted 10.2 shots from downtown per game this season, a significant increase from his 8.2 rate last season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic ranks in the 100th percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 37.4 minutes per game this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have shot 39.9% on threes (24th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, making this a good matchup.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Mavericks.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA with just 8.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
Over the last 25 games, the other team has come down with 11.2 offensive boards per game (6th-highest in the NBA) against the Philadelphia 76ers (maintaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense).
Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 9.2 foul shots per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 10.5 rate last season.

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