Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks · Feb 28, 2024

Updated Feb 29, 2024 2:02 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic slots into the 100th percentile, averaging an enormous 34.5 points per game this year.
Compared to last season's 8.2 mark, Luka Doncic's 3-point attempts have surged this season to 10.3 per game.
Luka Doncic has been on the court for 37.2 minutes per game on the road this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
When it comes to offense, the Mavericks's excellent 118.6 points per game settles in as the 7th-most in the league this year.
The 6th-speediest pace-of-play away offense in the league this year has been the Mavericks.

Favors Under

Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 4.5 3-point attempts per game (11th-fewest in the league) vs. the Toronto Raptors, labeling this as a hard matchup.
The Mavericks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic has attempted just 9.3 free throws per game this season, quite a bit less than his 10.5 mark last season.
Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (11th-fewest in the league) vs. the Raptors, struggling to get to the charity stripe.
Luka Doncic stands to suffer a reduction in productivity in all stat categories considering being on the road in this contest.

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