Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 2/22/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns · Feb 22, 2024

Updated Feb 23, 2024 3:45 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has notched 34.2 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the league in this category: 100th percentile.
Compared to last season's 8.2 mark, Luka Doncic's shot attempts from downtown have surged this season to 10.3 per game.
Luka Doncic has averaged 37.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 100th percentile.
When it comes to offense, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 123.0 points per game ranks 5th-highest in the league over the last 5 games.
The most up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Phoenix is a challenging one; when the Phoenix Suns are on the road, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PGs this year (12.2).
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Suns have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (12.2) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
Relative to last season's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of free throw attempts has diminished this season to 9.3 free throw attempts per game.
This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.1 foul shots per game (14th-lowest in the league) vs. the Phoenix Suns, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.